TODAY's Quick Numbers
+36 New Cases
(we have not seen these numbers since the innocent Days of March 8th 2020)
+ 98 Recovered
That's 60.72% Recovered means that 61 people of every 100 with CoronaVirus (including Mild Cases) have recovered
So the next question is .. when do we all get out of the House?
For that answer, please Click on our Related Article below
While Malaysia is Recovering, our Neighbour down South is not doing so well ..
please Click on our Related Article below
Monday 20th April 2020 (Day 34 + 8 Days Left) of the MCO#3
Congratulations .. you made it to Day #34 of the Movement Control Order.
8 more Days to Go
courtesy of Shawshank Redemption
REMEMBER: This VIRUS needs Other HUMANS to Survive & Spread
Monday 20th April 2020
BUT what exactly do the numbers mean?
Being an ex-Investment Banker, being partly creative and ultimately to answer my own questions; I decided to plot in the raw data using Investment Tools that we usually apply to track financial markets.
Monday's new cases of +36; just reflect that our timing is determined by our Discipline or the discipline of ALL MALAYSIANS to stay at home.
However, the Total Recovery is 60.73% or 3,295 of a total of 5,426 Cases.
There were +98 more People in Malaysia today who were declared Corona Free!
At a time like this, we can thank our Friends and our Community remind them .. STAYATHOME Malaysia !
While Malaysians are pondering our Corona Free Future; our next point of worry will be our Financial Future.
Our Politicians on the other hand are focusing on entertaining us like below
Please click on respective articles for full story
Our new National "Trusted Face", Health DG, Datuk Dr. Noor Hisham; shared that
Malaysia is more stringent than some other countries. If you have Coronavirus, regardless of how "Mild" you are; you are kept in the Hospital until you are tested Negative.
In US & the UK, friends tell us that people with "Mild" Coronavirus are being sent Home to recover. This will put their Family at risk.
Dr. Hisham further added that Malaysia is testing the strains of Coronavirus A, B & C. While not widely reported by Western media but appearing even in our local The Star; there is a WHO report that showed that the Wuhan Coronavirus strain (or Strain B) is not the same strain as the one in the USA or Italy.
Also new Testing Kits from South Korea arrived in Malaysia on Friday 17th April; these Kits have a higher accuracy testing rate & should expedite Malaysia's testing efforts.
Today's Briefing by Datuk Dr. Noor Hisham below
Of course, this is no reason to go our Party-ing .. we still need to keep our Hard Learnt Habits of the past few weeks. IF we want this MCO to really, really end
or at least be within acceptable control.
We need for now:
1) Wider Continued Testing
2) Staying at Home (what's 10 more Days Guys)
3) Wider Awareness of Face Masks & Washing of Hands.
In a moment like this, do spare a thought for the Elderly and Vulnerable among us.
They are not really invisible if we open the Eyes of our Heart.
Many of our immigrant service providers are not even being paid during the MCO period; while some Malaysians are complaining about finishing all Netflix episodes.
SOME HISTORY of the Past 4 Weeks
Let me tell you the Story behind the numbers …
The 1st Chart above is easily understood, as of Saturday 11th April, there are 4346 cases.
HOW IT HAPPENED SO FAR ...
About 40% are as reported by the Health DG; from the now infamous Tabligh Sri Petaling gathering. We don’t blame anyone, it happened when Corona was not a big thing in February, we are however concerned at the missing 4,000 who did not wish to get tested. Potentially this could breed another few pockets of hidden cases. That’s another story.
The 1st Red Square Marker is 1st March. This was the date of the Tabligh gathering of 16,000 in Sri Petaling
Give them 14 Days and you get the 1st Spike in Daily Cases (Orange Line) on 14th March. The government declared MCO#1 on 16th March (the 1st round red circle)
You have a 2nd Spike in Daily Cases on the 23rd of March which is attributable to the 2nd Generation of the Sri Petaling Group.
The 3rd Spike in Daily Cases is on 26th March which is about 10 days after the massive Exodus of everyone escaping MCO#1 Kuala Lumpur to get back to their hometown.
Since the 3rd Spike, there have been no reports of large gatherings. In fact the Polis started reporting that Malaysians had close to a 97% total compliance.
My thots are that Post MCO, there will be a compromise of sorts. The economy will probably start segment by segments.
It won't be full force 100% back to normal even in May 2020 itself. Not with the risk of resurgence quite real.
Well hopefully if there is a recovery, all the ideas we learnt from MCO will not go missing soon.
But of course, Life will not be the same again; not for Ramadhan till Hari Raya in May 2020.
People will need to get used to being People again. The current talk now is Life Post MCO.
Life After MCO
One Day you will Talk about this like being
a Special Part of History
post apocalyptic I Am Legend
The hope is that we can all start using our Mobile Phones BlueTooth to start warning us not to get too close to any person tagged with Coronavirus.
If people can be tagged into Green vs Red groups for example; then those not infected can start trying to resume life Pre-Corona without Fear. While those tagged Red, get regular check ups until they are totally cleared of the Virus.
The Virus needs people to breed. This App is reported to be available by end April while openly available in Google / iOS by May 2020.
Some More PREVIOUS Benchmark Numbers to Cheer you Up
*A. Total Hospital Beds in Malaysia:*
Public : 42.29k Beds in 135 Public Hospitals
Private: 15.57k Beds in 210 Private Hospitals
So do not panic. There are beds available still. This is where Aunty goes "Choi!"
Total 61,158 Doctors (not inclusive recall of Medical retirees)
*B. Total Ventilators* (in hand : vs expected)
926 + 152 non invasive type + 142 transport type in Public Hospitals:
450 in Private Hospitals : Orders pending for 800 more from China
Plus China recently donated 200 Ventilators to Malaysia
Numbers of Total Ventilators vary based on different official sources as there are invasive & non invasive types.
*Total Ventilators in Usage:* As of Tuesday 14th April 2020 Figures
30 pax Ventilator Users .. from a total of 60 Pax in ICU
By end April, the new Total Num of Ventilators could be 1,670 at hand + 1,000 from China.
With the requirement for Ventilators being currently 1.26% or 12.6 pax per 1,000 Corona cases; for now we’re Okay.
And hopefully you understand the need to ‘flatten the curve’ is for them to avoid overwhelming the system like they did in Italy.
So how many people per population: CORONAVIRUS Covid19 in Malaysia?
Numbers on this section are based on Thursday 9th April 2020 research
Total Recovered 1608 (38.03% of All Cases)
Total Recovered / Total Cases: China : 94.5%
Total Recovered / Total Cases: Canada : 24.7%
Total Recovered / Total Cases: Italy : 19.8%
Total Recovered / Total Cases: USA : 5.5%
Total Deaths 86 (1.64% of all Cases as per Friday 17th April 2020)
Total Death / Total Cases: Italy : 12.73%
Total Death / Total Cases: China : 4.07%
Total Death / Total Cases: USA : 3.52%
Total Death / Total Cases: Canada : 2.33%
We’re not doing too badly Malaysia.
In fact, based on Recovery Rate, only China can beat us buy that’s because they had it longer than us.
A Total of 1,830 Covid-19 patients have recovered or 42.13% as of Friday 10th April.
49.70% as of Tuesday 14th April 2020. Now 56.50% as of Friday 17th April 2020.
Our Death rate while sad, is honestly a very low number. 70 have unfortunately died & mostly the older generation above 55 yrs with existing issues. But the silver lining is that it’s 1.61% of the total 4346 cases or 16.1 persons from every 1,000 persons.
We're currently on par & slightly better than Canada in terms of managing deaths; and they have one the best Health Systems in the World.
Here’s the thing ..
the Total Cases 4817 on Monday currently represent 0.013% of 32 Million Malaysians.
That means for every 10,000 people in our country only 1.3 persons has been exposed to Coronavirus.
Woaaah .. Don’t jinx it! you say .. I get where you are coming from .. Chill .. chill
The CoronaVirus Covid-19 is indeed contagious with a Ro of 2.2 .. or 1 person can lead to 2,000 in (2) weeks. But reading daily numbers of those infected from 100 ~ 200; can create a sense that your World is collapsing. It’s Not.
Remember so far .. 1.3 persons per 10,000.
You can stay careful but you don’t have to go crazy. The Numbers should cheer you up. It's not everyone on your Block.
We are near the Beginning of the End of the Movie below
World War C .. via Giphy.com
We just have to do our Part & not catch it & not spread it.
Wear your Mask, Use Plastic Gloves if you can and Wash your Hands regularly. Do it for others if not for yourself.
You now have 8 Days left of MCO to do something Cool. This amount of “free time” may not come again soon. Use it wisely 😊